Europe must prepare for extremes: Protection against the impacts of warming is “not rocket science”

Europe is already experiencing the consequences of climate change, and according to scientists it can no longer afford further delay. Maarten van Aalst, director of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), warns that the continent is more vulnerable than previously assumed. At the same time, adapting to rising temperatures is, in his view, far from impossible.

“Twenty years ago we would have said that climate extremes would mainly be a problem in poorer countries. What we are now seeing is that Europe itself is also vulnerable – especially to conditions it has not faced in the past,” he told The Guardian. According to him, European countries’ preparedness for extreme weather events “is not particularly good.”

In its new report, the ESABCC advisory board assesses current adaptation measures as insufficient, often partial and implemented too late. It therefore recommends that the European Union systematically introduce mandatory climate risk assessments, integrate climate resilience into all policies, and direct more funding – including private investment – into protective and preventive measures. However, the report itself does not quantify how much such preparedness would cost.

Floods and heatwaves

Heavy rainfall intensified by climate disruption caused 134 deaths in the German Ahr Valley in 2021, and in 2024 killed 229 people in the Spanish region of Valencia. Across the continent, summer heatwaves kill tens of thousands of people every year, with studies attributing between half and two-thirds of these deaths to rising temperatures caused by fossil fuel pollution. Last year’s wildfires also burned more of Europe than scientists have ever recorded before.

Last week, Portugal was urged to develop climate adaptation plans after being hit by an unprecedented series of storms that caused at least 16 deaths and an estimated €775 million in damages. In its new report, the ESABCC describes current efforts to adapt to rising temperatures as “insufficient, largely incremental, and often too late,” and recommends that policymakers prepare for a world that will be 2.8–3.3°C warmer by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels.

Venice in February 2026

Challenging, but manageable

Van Aalst emphasizes that alongside adaptation, it is crucial to prevent the worst warming scenarios. “The IPCC clearly says this is a highly problematic future with rapidly increasing risks. And for a number of risks, we will hit the limits of adaptation,” he warns. In other words, even the best possible preparedness may not be enough if global warming intensifies significantly.

Experience from recent years gives these warnings a concrete shape. Europe is facing stronger heatwaves, more intense rainfall, and devastating wildfires. These phenomena not only cause economic damage but also tragic human losses. According to van Aalst, it is therefore essential to significantly strengthen early warning systems and crisis preparedness.

Despite the seriousness of the situation, van Aalst remains cautiously optimistic. Protecting against extreme weather, he says, “is not rocket science.” Part of the solution lies in relatively simple and well-known steps – better planning, infrastructure adjustments, and more effective sharing of risk information.

The challenge Europe faces is undoubtedly demanding. At the same time, however, it is manageable – if political leaders begin to act in a timely and systematic way.

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