UN chief António Guterres presciently declared last year: “The era of global boiling has dawned.” Unfortunately, 2024 proves him right, a report from the EU’s space program found that it is “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. Scientists have found that global temperatures over the past 12 months were 1.62°C warmer than the average between 1850-1900, when humans began burning huge volumes of coal, oil, and gas. This year is on track to be the first to reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
Southern Europe is facing an increasing number of heat stress days, defined as days when it feels warmer than 32°C. Data from the Copernicus report shows that large parts of the region endured two full months of “severe heat stress” lasting a total of 60 days during the season. Several areas in Greece and western Turkey experienced “severe heat stress” every summer day and “very severe heat stress” for about two months. Although some people can solve this discomfort by using air conditioning, other groups of the population, typically migrant laborers in agriculture or prisoners, could not escape it.
Extreme heat brings devastating droughts
Last year’s sea temperatures shocked scientists as the waters warmed to previously unthinkable levels. And it appears that this was no anomaly: in the first half of 2024, ocean surface heat levels soared above the levels they reached the previous year. And we felt it in the form of extreme rain. Warmer waters evaporate more quickly, which fills rain clouds and increases precipitation. Because of this, destructive hurricanes such as those seen in the US this year, as well as the flash floods that recently devastated Europe, are much more likely. 61% of the Earth’s surface experienced an increase in extreme precipitation between 1994 and 2023 compared to the period between 1961 and 1990.
While some parts of the world faced extremely heavy rains, watercourses dried up in others that rely on their life-giving rivers. This year, the Amazon suffered in particular, when drought threatens the population. Almost half of the global land area has been affected by drought for at least a month this year, and droughts are increasing as the planet warms.
We’ve known about the problems ahead for decades, but humanity continues to burn fossil fuels. This causes gases like carbon dioxide and methane to build up in the atmosphere and cook the planet. The concentration of CO2 reached 420 parts per billion in 2023, which is 51% more than before the industrial revolution. Methane concentrations reached 1,934 parts per billion, a 165% increase over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, and nitrous oxide concentrations reached 336.9 parts per billion, a 25% increase.
Melting glaciers: we pretend not to know about it
Despite the Paris Agreement, in which nations pledged to reach “net zero” in the coming decades, which would mean emitting no more carbon than is absorbed by land and sea, there is no sign of that happening. This year is on track to set another new record in global carbon emissions. Developments to date suggest that emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas will increase by 0.8% in 2024. Emissions must fall by 43% by 2030 for the world to have any chance of meeting the target of no more than 1.5°C temperature increase.
A warming planet causes ice to melt and this water in turn enters the sea, causing sea levels to rise. Which is a vicious cycle. As the heat melts the sea ice, darker water is exposed to absorb more of the sun’s heat, leading to further heating of that water. Scientists believe that changes in the Arctic may be the cause of worsened heat waves and floods. Sea levels are rising relentlessly as land ice melts and warmer oceans expand. Sea levels are slow to respond to global warming, so even if we keep warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, one in five people in the world is likely to experience flooding in their city, from New York to London to Shanghai.
For our survival, emissions must be kept to “net zero”
Its spark is the fact that the green economy is finally taking off and renewables are being built around the world. The Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024 report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) shows that 2023 set a new record for the deployment of renewables in the power sector, reaching a total capacity of 3,870 GW worldwide. We are also using more and more electric cars, which can temporarily help the situation. The real solution to emissions from passenger car transport is emission-free, sustainable transport, especially in cities over short distances. But the population needs a safe infrastructure for such movement. Its construction should therefore be a priority of all governments and town halls.
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